3 Sept · 06:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1577
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lebek
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1533
FormWWWWL
55%
45%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H30-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-22)