3 Sept · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1497
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1533
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Paszkiewicz🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 77% (26)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.