3 Sept · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1418
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1462
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H15-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)