3 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1489
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paszkiewicz
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1459
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.