3 Sept · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1459
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1536
FormLWWWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H9-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-1)