3 Sept · 11:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1645
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Daniel
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1689
FormLLLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Daniel
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H33-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-11)