3 Sept · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇵🇱Josef Braun
ELO 1758
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Braun
MB
🇵🇱Michal Benes
ELO 1718
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Braun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.