3 Sept · 18:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1449
FormLWWLW
74%Win chancemodel fair 1.35Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1681
FormWWWWW
26%
74%
🌟Machelski covers set handicap as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 74% · 1.35vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~75 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+232
H2H63-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+232)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (63-20)