3 Sept · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1428
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1462
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 68% (34)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H14-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.