3 Sept · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1696
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
MB
🇵🇱Michal Benes
ELO 1722
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Daniel
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.