3 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1384
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trela
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1366
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 71% (41)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H20-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.