4 Sept · 04:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1585
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1597
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (26)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H46-56
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.