4 Sept · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1451
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lilien
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1428
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H55-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.