4 Sept · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1478
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruszkiewicz🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)