4 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1488
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Paszkiewicz
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1484
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H14-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.