4 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1459
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1477
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H67-70
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.