4 Sept · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1483
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1539
FormWLWWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niemiec🌟Niemiec covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)