4 Sept · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1645
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H72-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (72-18)