4 Sept · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1479
FormWLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1546
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niemiec🌟Niemiec covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)