4 Sept · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1311
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Gronowski
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gronowski
ELO 1382
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Gronowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)