4 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1649
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1639
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H29-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.