4 Sept · 16:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1434
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1477
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 67% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H25-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-13)