4 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1474
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Niemiec
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1446
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Niemiec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (41)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.