4 Sept · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1575
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zmijewski
AZ
🇵🇱Artur Zmijewski
ELO 1583
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krutak🌟Krutak covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Zmijewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.