5 Sept · 06:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1389
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Piotrowski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1327
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)