5 Sept · 06:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1486
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1420
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H17-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)