5 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1411
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Buczynski
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1438
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 69% (49)
Fair odds · Buczynski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H5-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.