5 Sept · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1407
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wozniak
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1353
FormWLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H7-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-6)