5 Sept · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1325
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rolak
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1314
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.