5 Sept · 18:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Gesiarz
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1327
FormWLLLL
67%
33%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 66% (35)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~76 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+161
H2H19-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+161)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-5)