5 Sept · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1484
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jesiek
RP
🇵🇱Roman Piechnik
ELO 1457
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Jesiek goes over total as favourite 67% (21)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.