5 Sept · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1329
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Michalczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1403
FormLWWLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)