5 Sept · 20:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1384
FormLLWLW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1492
FormWWWWL
38%
62%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~77 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)