5 Sept · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1664
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1713
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 64% (92)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H11-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-7)