5 Sept · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1459
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1487
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 76% (25)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H20-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.