5 Sept · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1324
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kwodawski
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1389
FormWLLWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Kwodawski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H5-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-0)