6 Sept · 02:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1674
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1699
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 64% (92)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.