6 Sept · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1496
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lilien
KK
🇵🇱Karol Kufel
ELO 1490
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.