6 Sept · 06:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1453
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Staniszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1470
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.