6 Sept · 04:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1381
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wiza
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1354
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H23-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.