6 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1456
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dabrowski
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1429
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H31-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.