6 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1307
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1328
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H18-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.