6 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1559
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lach
WW
🇵🇱Wojciech Wojtaszczyk
ELO 1548
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.