6 Sept · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1559
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lach
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1479
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lach
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+80
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)