6 Sept · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1438
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Wasilewski
DW
🇵🇱Damian Wasilewski
ELO 1483
FormLLWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Wasilewski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)