6 Sept · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1413
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1447
FormLWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.