6 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1460
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Staniszewski
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1438
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.