6 Sept · 15:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1411
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zagajewski
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Zagajewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.