6 Sept · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1436
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Staniszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1463
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.