6 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1467
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1470
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 76% (25)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H21-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.